AP Rankings, Questionable Logic & Inertia

Here at Three’s A Pattern, we’re always on the lookout for things that seem off. With the newest AP rankings, we started to notice a funny trend. I thought it would be interesting to play a little game called ‘Find The Ranked Team’. I’m going to pick two teams that have very similar resumes, but are regarded as radically different to the the polls & voters. See if you can guess which is the ranked team.  All rankings below are from the current AP poll unless otherwise noted.

First up:

Team 1: 4-2. 2 losses: @ #25 team & at home to #5 team.

Team 2: 3-3. 3 losses: neutral site to #16 team, @ #8 team and at neutral site to #3 team.

Next up:

Team 1: 5-2. 2 losses: at home to #4 team, by 3 & on the road to unranked Big 10 team by 8.

Team 2: 4-2. 2 losses: at home to #4 team, by 7 & on the road to unranked Big 10 team by 4.

Lastly:

Team 1: 5-1. 1 loss to unranked Big 12 team on the road.

Team 2: 6-1. 1 loss to unranked Pac 10 team on the road.

Answers:

Team 1: Tulsa, unranked, with wins @Tulane, @New Mexico, Sam Houston State (1-AA), @Rice. 3 non-BCS road wins and 1 1-AA win.

Team 2: Oklahoma, #25, with wins Idaho State (1-AA), Tulsa and Baylor. No road wins, 1 1-AA win and 1 BCS home win over a 3-3 team.

Team 1: Ohio State, #18, with wins over Navy, @ Toledo, Illinois, @ Indiana and Wisconsin. 2 road wins, 1 BCS and 1 non-BCS, and 2 BCS home wins.

Team 2: Notre Dame, unranked with wins over Nevada, Michigan State, @ Purdue and Washington. 1 BCS road win and 2 BCS home wins.

Team 1: Kansas, #24, with wins Northern Colorado (1-AA), @ UTEP, Duke, Southern Miss and Iowa State. 1 non-BCS road win and 1 BCS home win.

Team 2: Central Michigan, unranked, with wins @ Michigan State, Alcorn State (1-AA), Akron, @ Buffalo, Eastern Michigan, @ Western Michigan. 1 BCS road win and 2 non-BCS road wins.

The above examples are not meant to stump for one team over another. They’re all at the end of the rankings and not really going to affect the BCS rankings at the end of the year. It’s just meant to illustrate just how much momentum & inertia effects the polls. All of the ranked teams above, except Kansas, started out very high in the preseason polls. Kansas started out 25th and rose as high as 16th. This just shows how difficult it is to overcome preseason guesses and predictions by the voters.  Of course, 2 out of the 3 unranked teams are from non-BCS conferences, which carries a lot of bias also.